What the experts have to say about the property market in Q2 2025

The second quarter of 2025 confirms signs of a gradual recovery in the Luxembourg property market. After the end of 2024 was marked by an influx of transactions linked to temporary tax incentives, the experts agree that activity will pick up again, particularly in the existing property segment.

To decipher these developments, we have gathered the views of several specialists in the sector: Pierre Clément (Nexvia), Julien Licheron (LISER/Observatoire de l'Habitat) and Mathieu Toussaint (atHomeGroup). Sales volumes, price trends, buyer behaviour... these are just some of the indicators that provide a better understanding of the dynamics at work and enable us to anticipate future trends.

Pierre Clément - Branch Manager, Nexvia

The large number of transactions in the existing property segment, with prices rising slightly over the year, shows that the market has regained its equilibrium. The decline in volume in the 1st quarter is merely a technical effect, as the market is between 2 tax deadlines. The second quarter will see a new record number of transactions on the existing property market.

Although some tax incentives expire on 30 June (the date of the registered compromise), Nexvia believes that the second half of the year will remain very dynamic.

This dynamism in the existing market will be driven by :

• Bëllegen Akt at €40,000 per buyer
  but above all by :
• Supply on the new property market is often unsuited to the new price equilibrium. The vast majority of buyers are therefore returning to the existing market. The only pressure we expect to see is on properties priced over €1.5 million, where the return of registration fees to 7% will have a negative impact.

Julien Licheron - Economist at Liser / Housing Observatory

The temporary tax measures introduced by the government until 31 December 2024, and then extended until 30 June 2025, have had a marked impact on activity, particularly in the flat and old house markets. The surge was very strong at the end of 2024, with transactions being carried out in advance, which resulted in a sharp fall in activity in the 1st quarter of 2025.

With the extension of the tax measures, we are likely to see a further surge in activity in the 2nd quarter of 2025, before a drop in the number of transactions during the summer.

In terms of prices, the trends observed by atHome on the basis of advertisements are consistent with those of the Observatoire de l'Habitat based on notarised deeds: the generalised fall in prices appears to be over. The rise in advertised prices has not, however, materialised in a significant increase in the prices of flats and old houses in notarised deeds for the 1st quarter of 2025.

We will therefore probably have to wait until the end of 2025 to better assess whether the upturn in activity observed in 2024 is structural and analyse its impact on prices.

What's more, despite the very attractive tax incentives, the recovery in the VEFA (VEFA ready-to-buy) market remains very slow. The return of buyer confidence (both in the market and in developers) is a fundamental prerequisite for this recovery.

Mathieu Toussaint - Member of the Management Committee atHomeGroup

How will the Luxembourg property market develop? It's a complex subject, because the property market is influenced by many factors: the geopolitical context, interest rate fluctuations, and so on. To get a clearer picture, we need to rely on objective data. Changes in transaction volumes and sales prices, published quarterly by the Observatoire de l'Habitat, give a clear picture of past trends. But how can we predict the future? To anticipate changes in selling prices, we can analyse recent trends in the prices advertised on atHome.lu. To estimate future trends in the number of transactions, it is interesting to look at the activity of people actively looking for a property.

As can be seen from the graph above, interest in properties for sale on atHome.lu has been growing steadily since the beginning of 2024, and this trend should continue to fuel the recovery of the property market in the coming months.

Read our full analysis of the Luxembourg property market in the second quarter of 2025 here. 👇🏻