The Price Adjustment Index: a new indicator for Luxembourg

For the first time in Luxembourg, an indicator has been introduced to measure the difference between the advertised price and the price actually paid when the compromis is signed.

The Price Adjustment Index compares, for the same property, the asking price and the final compromise price. Result: on average, buyers pay 7.2% less than the advertised price, This represents a difference of around €52,000 per property. After two years of decline, prices have stabilised and are now on a slight upward trend. But negotiation is still very much a factor: there is still a significant difference between the asking price and the price actually paid.

Quarterly change

Market context : the effect of the "housing package" on negotiations.

The low observed in Q2 2025 (6.4%) coincided with the end of the temporary tax measures (law of 22 May 2024, extended until 30 June 2025). In order to secure these benefits (Bëllegen Akt, reduced registration duties, lower capital gains tax), some buyers accelerated their decision and agreed to finalise the transaction at a price close to the advertised price.

STATEC also reports exceptionally high activity over the period, linked to the anticipation of the deadline. From Q3 2025 onwards, the gap returns to its usual level, confirming a mainly temporary effect.

Where does the discount come from?

The total gap over the period Q1 2025 - Q1 2026 breaks down into two distinct phases:

Houses sell for more than flats.

With a total difference of 8.3% compared with 6.5% for flats, houses are subject to both more price revisions and stronger negotiation. On a house listed at €1.2m, this represents a saving of almost €100,000 for the buyer. This is consistent with STATEC's observation that transaction prices for existing homes fell by -1.0% over 12 months, compared with +0.2% for flats: a market where official prices are falling is logically a market where negotiation is higher.

Trends by budget

Expensive properties trade at a premium.

Properties over €800k show a total spread of 8.1%, more than 1 point above the lower segments. On a property listed at €1.5m, the typical buyer saves an average of €122,000.

Trends by region

STATEC notes that prices are strongly influenced by distance from Luxembourg City, and the same logic applies to the Price Adjustment Index: the further you are from the capital, the wider the gap between the price you pay and the price you see.

The South is the most active market, with prices that are closest to transaction reality.

In conclusion

Over the period Q1 2025 - Q1 2026, the Price Adjustment Index shows a total difference of 7.2% between the advertised price and the final transaction price. Most of this difference is due to negotiation, while the seller's revision only accounts for around a third.

The highest discounts are concentrated on houses, outlying regions and properties costing more than €800,000, where the gap between expectations and transaction reality is most marked.

In practical terms, the index provides an additional benchmark for better calibrating a sale price, making negotiations more objective and monitoring market dynamics over time.

What this means: The Price Adjustment Index gives a trend, not a promise. Every property is unique, and so is every negotiation.

The data shows that there is almost always room for negotiation, depending on the type of property, its location and its position on the market.

In this context, having the right support makes all the difference: the expertise of a property professional means you can assess a property more accurately, position yourself at the right price and negotiate under the best possible conditions.

Knowing these figures gives you a better understanding of the market. With the right support, you maximise your chances of closing at the right price.

Methodology