What the experts have to say about the property market in Q1 2026

Sales prices continuing to adjust, a further fall in the number of new flats in a still difficult environment, and a rental market that is stable overall but still under pressure: these are some of the highlights of the first quarter of 2026.

To decipher these developments, we have gathered the views of several specialists in the sector: Pierre Clément (Nexvia), Julien Licheron (LISER/Housing Observatory), Joe Schmit (Vevalo) and Maurits van Rijckevorsel (Van Maurits). Sales volumes, price trends, buyer behaviour... these are just some of the indicators we use to understand current dynamics and anticipate future market movements.

Pierre Clément - Managing Director of Nexvia

Nexvia's data on transactions and sales commitments for the 1st quarter of 2026 confirms the continuation of the solid trend in the existing property segment.

Our latest data from our partner banks and from our agency business suggest that the existing property market has returned to equilibrium and that prices have stabilised over the last 2 years.

Actual sales prices therefore follow the trends in advertised prices in Luxembourg as recorded by atHome (+1.5% for old flats between the 1st quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026). The sale of large houses has been penalised since the 3rd quarter of 2025 by the end of the halving of registration fees, leading to a slight correction in advertised prices (-1.4% for old houses between the 1st quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026).

In the absence of a major economic downturn, we expect sales volumes for the coming year as a whole to be at pre-crisis annual averages for existing flats, and slightly lower for existing houses.

While there are enough would-be owner-occupiers to normalise the existing property market, would-be investors have deserted the market. And first and foremost the new-build market, where local investor-savers are so much needed.

Julien Licheron - Economist at Liser / Housing Observatory

After the severe turbulence seen between 2022 and 2024, followed by the one-off effects of tax incentives in 2025, activity will return to a more predictable pace at the start of 2026, refocused on its fundamentals. The existing home market will be the main driving force: activity there is more dynamic, supported by stabilised financing conditions and prices that have stopped fluctuating wildly.

Transactions are gradually approaching pre-crisis levels, a sign that buyer confidence is returning.

Conversely, the new-build market remains in retreat. The sharp fall in VEFA sales and the slowdown in new housing starts illustrate a cyclical crisis in production that could, in time, exacerbate the structural shortfall in supply. This duality between a resilient existing housing market and a struggling new housing market remains a key feature of the current cycle.

On the price front, the general trend is for prices to stabilise. After a period of wide fluctuations, values have changed little over the past year.

Negotiations between buyers and sellers are also more frequent, reflecting a more balanced market.

All in all, the outlook is fairly encouraging, without being overly optimistic. In the absence of a macroeconomic shock, the market seems to be entering a healthier phase, with greater clarity, steadier activity and controlled prices, but tensions over housing supply will continue to weigh on the market for a long time to come.

Joe Schmit - Managing Partner at Vevalo

The Luxembourg property market is currently moving at two speeds. Older properties are holding up well, having already absorbed a number of falls, while new properties, and more specifically VEFA, have clearly lost traction.

The figures for early 2026 confirm the seriousness of the situation, and without the purchases made by the State, this weakness would appear even more clearly in the statistics.

The off-plan market remains under pressure, but its prices cannot adjust in the same proportions as those of existing homes, as construction costs continue to rise due to a number of factors beyond the control of developers: increased technical requirements, the cost of materials, energy, financing and regulatory complexity.

In this context, the priority is to restore confidence. We need to give the middle class back the desire and the means to invest in property, in order to support the production of new homes, expand the rental stock, keep rents under control for the long term and address the housing shortfall that has built up over the last ten years of strong demographic growth.

Maurits van Rijckevorsel - CEO of Van Maurits Immobilière

War in Iran, oil under pressure, nervous bond markets: the global context at the start of 2026 is weighing heavily on Luxembourg real estate, and there is nothing to suggest that the situation will be resolved quickly. Lending rates are rising, driven by a risk premium that the markets are already predicting, irrespective of any decision by the ECB.

For borrowers, each additional half-point means hundreds of euros in extra monthly payments, eroding property purchasing power that has only just begun to recover.

However, even the structural housing shortage, once an unassailable argument, is no longer enough to reassure: it is buyer sentiment that dictates the market, and this sentiment is showing a clear slowdown. The atHome data bear this out: new-builds are down, existing homes are barely holding up, and VEFA is still structurally in decline. On this last point, the optimistic rhetoric of some developers is hard to convince: without visibility on interest rates or a return from investors, new projects will remain timid.

However, a geopolitical lull and an easing of credit conditions would be enough to reactivate demand, which is still there - our demography in Luxembourg is still solid!

Read our full analysis of the Luxembourg property market in the first quarter of 2026 here. 👇🏻