What the experts have to say about the property market in Q4 2025

Stable sales prices, a downward adjustment for new flats under €10,000/m², and a rental market that is stable overall depending on the property and the region: the end-of-2025 assessment is confirmed.

To decipher these developments, we have gathered the views of several specialists in the sector: Pierre Clément (Nexvia), Julien Licheron (LISER/Housing Observatory) and Kim Felten (Hektar). Sales volumes, price trends, buyer behaviour... these are just some of the indicators we use to understand current dynamics and anticipate future market movements.

Pierre Clément - Managing Director of Nexvia

The return to pre-crisis transaction volumes in the existing property segment, with stable prices over the last 18 months (excluding quarterly variations linked to tax deadlines), shows that the price adjustment of 15 % that took place in 2023 corresponded to the necessary correction in the face of changes in borrowing rates.

On the ground, negotiations have become healthier once again, with a balance of power between sellers and sellers' representatives.
and buyers.

Effective prices once again take full account of the intrinsic characteristics of properties, such as location, age and quality of construction. While the recovery at these new price levels is certain, this new equilibrium remains fragile because the cost of financing is still high, particularly for long-term debt, and shows no sign of easing in the short term.

Julien Licheron - Economist at Liser / Housing Observatory

The residential property market has been showing signs of improvement since mid-2024, although it has not yet returned to a fully comparable pre-crisis dynamic. The recovery has mainly been in the existing homes segment, where activity has been supported by more stable interest rates, temporary tax measures and the price adjustment that took place between 2022 and 2024.

After this correction phase, prices seem to have reached a plateau, with limited and sometimes heterogeneous variations depending on the period and the segment, suggesting a stabilisation phase rather than a true upward cycle. However, activity remains sensitive to the timing of government incentives, which has led to anticipation effects and sharp fluctuations in transaction volumes.

The contrast with the new housing market remains stark. The number of new-build flat sales remains well below pre-crisis levels, due to the combined effect of a persistent price differential with existing properties, still-fragile buyer confidence and a withdrawal of investors, faced with tighter financing constraints.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is mixed but open. In the absence of a macroeconomic shock, the existing housing market could evolve in an environment of sustained but more stable activity, with prices held down overall.

The upturn in new-build will depend more on structural factors - financing conditions, land price trends, supply policies - the effects of which could be gradual, suggesting a slow recovery rather than a rapid rebound.

Kim Felten - Managing Partner at Hektar

HEKTAR notes that by 2025 the residential property market has stabilised, with a higher number of transactions compared with the previous year, and a general stabilisation of sales prices after the price corrections of 2024 .

Demand for existing properties has gradually increased. On the other hand, buyers are taking slightly longer to think about buying a property, which means that sales are taking longer to materialise.

As for VEFA, there is a major difference between projects under construction or nearing completion, and projects still requiring a certain amount of pre-sales. While there is strong demand for new projects in the completion phase, projects with uncertain delivery times are still generating reluctance among buyers. We would point out that government measures had boosted the rental investment market over the past year by attracting investors; but the end of these measures has unfortunately dampened investor interest once again, which explains why the current market is heavily dominated by buyers looking for a primary residence.

For 2026, we expect a more dynamic year, with a gradual rise in demand and slight growth in prices.

Read our full analysis of the Luxembourg property market in the last quarter of 2025 here. 👇🏻